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August 2014 Revisiting Francis Galton’s Forecasting Competition
Kenneth F. Wallis
Statist. Sci. 29(3): 420-424 (August 2014). DOI: 10.1214/14-STS468


This note reexamines the data from a weight-judging competition described in an article by Francis Galton published in 1907. Following the correction of some errors, it is shown that this forecasting competition is an interesting precursor of two more recent developments in the statistical forecasting literature. One is forecast combination, with the mean forecast here exactly coinciding with the outcome, and the second is the use of two-piece frequency and probability distributions to describe asymmetry.


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Kenneth F. Wallis. "Revisiting Francis Galton’s Forecasting Competition." Statist. Sci. 29 (3) 420 - 424, August 2014.


Published: August 2014
First available in Project Euclid: 23 September 2014

zbMATH: 1331.62025
MathSciNet: MR3264553
Digital Object Identifier: 10.1214/14-STS468

Keywords: forecast combinations , Forecast competitions , kurtosis , skewness , the wisdom of crowds , two-piece distributions

Rights: Copyright © 2014 Institute of Mathematical Statistics

Vol.29 • No. 3 • August 2014
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