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2021 The duration of a supercritical SIR epidemic on a configuration model
Abid Ali Lashari, Ana Serafimović, Pieter Trapman
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Electron. J. Probab. 26: 1-49 (2021). DOI: 10.1214/21-EJP679

Abstract

We consider the spread of a supercritical stochastic SIR (Susceptible, Infectious, Recovered) epidemic on a configuration model random graph. We mainly focus on the final stages of a large outbreak and provide limit results for the duration of the entire epidemic, while we allow for non-exponential distributions of the infectious period and for both finite and infinite variance of the asymptotic degree distribution in the graph.

Our analysis relies on the analysis of some subcritical continuous time branching processes and on ideas from first passage percolation.

As an application we investigate the effect of vaccination with an all-or-nothing vaccine on the duration of the epidemic. We show that if vaccination fails to prevent the epidemic, it often – but not always – increases the duration of the epidemic.

Funding Statement

This research is funded by the Swedish Research Council (grant 2016-04566, awarded to PT).

Acknowledgments

We are grateful to two reviewers for useful and constructive comments.

Citation

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Abid Ali Lashari. Ana Serafimović. Pieter Trapman. "The duration of a supercritical SIR epidemic on a configuration model." Electron. J. Probab. 26 1 - 49, 2021. https://doi.org/10.1214/21-EJP679

Information

Received: 12 December 2019; Accepted: 19 July 2021; Published: 2021
First available in Project Euclid: 22 August 2021

arXiv: 1805.05117
Digital Object Identifier: 10.1214/21-EJP679

Subjects:
Primary: 05C80, 60K35, 92D30
Secondary: 60J80

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