The Annals of Applied Statistics
- Ann. Appl. Stat.
- Volume 9, Number 3 (2015), 1194-1225.
A Bayesian spatiotemporal model for reconstructing climate from multiple pollen records
Holocene (the last 12,000 years) temperature variation, including the transition out of the last Ice Age to a warmer climate, is reconstructed at multiple locations in southern Finland, Sweden and Estonia based on pollen fossil data from lake sediment cores. A novel Bayesian statistical approach is proposed that allows the reconstructed temperature histories to interact through shared environmental response parameters and spatial dependence. The prior distribution for past temperatures is partially based on numerical climate simulation. The features in the reconstructions are consistent with the quantitative climate reconstructions based on more commonly used reconstruction techniques. The results suggest that the novel spatio-temporal approach can provide quantitative reconstructions that are smoother, less uncertain and generally more realistic than the site-specific individual reconstructions.
Ann. Appl. Stat., Volume 9, Number 3 (2015), 1194-1225.
Received: May 2014
Revised: May 2015
First available in Project Euclid: 2 November 2015
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Holmström, Lasse; Ilvonen, Liisa; Seppä, Heikki; Veski, Siim. A Bayesian spatiotemporal model for reconstructing climate from multiple pollen records. Ann. Appl. Stat. 9 (2015), no. 3, 1194--1225. doi:10.1214/15-AOAS832. https://projecteuclid.org/euclid.aoas/1446488736
- Supplement A: Additional analyses, reconstructions and description of the data. The document (a pdf-file) includes an analysis of the Gaussian response model and its parameters, reference records from Greenland ice cores and Scandinavian lake sediments, additional reconstructions, a list of the core chronologies for the four lakes used for temperature reconstruction, and charts of relative abundances of the ten most common pollen taxa in the samples.
- Supplement B: The data. The data used in the article (an Excel file).
- Supplement C: The Matlab code. The Matlab code used in reconstructions.