Open Access
May 2020 Comment: Laplace and Cognitive Illusions
Daniel Kahneman, Maya Bar-Hillel
Statist. Sci. 35(2): 171-172 (May 2020). DOI: 10.1214/19-STS750


Reports in the 1970s of cognitive illusions in judgments of uncertainty had been anticipated by Laplace 150 years earlier. We discuss Miller and Gelman’s remark that Laplace’s anticipation of the main ideas of the heuristics and biases approach “gives us a new perspective on these ideas as more universal and less contingent on particular developments [that came much] later.”


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Daniel Kahneman. Maya Bar-Hillel. "Comment: Laplace and Cognitive Illusions." Statist. Sci. 35 (2) 171 - 172, May 2020.


Published: May 2020
First available in Project Euclid: 3 June 2020

MathSciNet: MR4106597
Digital Object Identifier: 10.1214/19-STS750

Keywords: Cognitive illusions , heuristics and biases , judgment under uncertainty

Rights: Copyright © 2020 Institute of Mathematical Statistics

Vol.35 • No. 2 • May 2020
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