R. A. Fisher on Bayes and Bayes' theorem

Abstract

Ronald Fisher blieved that "The theory of inverse probability is founded upon an error, and must be wholy rejected." This note describes how Fisher divided responsibility for the error between Bayes and Laplace. Bayes he admired for formulating the problem, producing a solution and then withholding it; Laplace he blamed for promulgating the theory and for distorting the concept of probability to accommodate the theory. At the end of his life Fisher added a refinement: in the Essay Bayes had anticipated one of Fisher's own fiducial arguments.