Open Access
November, 1981 On Estimating the Probability of Discovering a New Species
Anne Chao
Ann. Statist. 9(6): 1339-1342 (November, 1981). DOI: 10.1214/aos/1176345651


We search a population by selecting one member at a time with replacement and observing the species of each selected member. We are interested in predicting the conditional probability of discovering a new species in the next selection after $n$ observations. The existence and asymptotic behavior of the uniformly minimum variance unbiased estimator of the unconditional probability is investigated under the condition that the species are uniformly distributed. We also compare the performance of the estimator as a predictor of the conditional probability with that of a linear unbiased predictor.


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Anne Chao. "On Estimating the Probability of Discovering a New Species." Ann. Statist. 9 (6) 1339 - 1342, November, 1981.


Published: November, 1981
First available in Project Euclid: 12 April 2007

zbMATH: 0477.62016
MathSciNet: MR630117
Digital Object Identifier: 10.1214/aos/1176345651

Primary: 62F10
Secondary: 62E20

Keywords: asymptotic behavior , Discovering species , uniformly minimum variance unbiased estimator

Rights: Copyright © 1981 Institute of Mathematical Statistics

Vol.9 • No. 6 • November, 1981
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