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December, 1982 Bayes's Two Arguments for The Rule of Conditioning
Glenn Shafer
Ann. Statist. 10(4): 1075-1089 (December, 1982). DOI: 10.1214/aos/1176345974

Abstract

The introductory section of Thomas Bayes's famous essay on probability contains two arguments for what we now call the rule of conditioning. The first argument, which leads to Bayes's third proposition, can be made rigorous if we use rooted trees to represent the step-by-step determination of events. The second argument, which leads to Bayes's fifth proposition, does not stand up to scrutiny.

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Glenn Shafer. "Bayes's Two Arguments for The Rule of Conditioning." Ann. Statist. 10 (4) 1075 - 1089, December, 1982. https://doi.org/10.1214/aos/1176345974

Information

Published: December, 1982
First available in Project Euclid: 12 April 2007

zbMATH: 0502.62002
MathSciNet: MR673644
Digital Object Identifier: 10.1214/aos/1176345974

Subjects:
Primary: 60A05
Secondary: 62A15

Keywords: Bayes , conditional probability , exact events , rooted trees

Rights: Copyright © 1982 Institute of Mathematical Statistics

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Vol.10 • No. 4 • December, 1982
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