Open Access
December 2012 Finding a consensus on credible features among several paleoclimate reconstructions
Panu Erästö, Lasse Holmström, Atte Korhola, Jan Weckström
Ann. Appl. Stat. 6(4): 1377-1405 (December 2012). DOI: 10.1214/12-AOAS540


We propose a method to merge several paleoclimate time series into one that exhibits a consensus on the features of the individual times series. The paleoclimate time series can be noisy, nonuniformly sampled and the dates at which the paleoclimate is reconstructed can have errors. Bayesian inference is used to model the various sources of uncertainty and smoothing of the posterior distribution of the consensus is used to capture its credible features in different time scales. The technique is demonstrated by analyzing a collection of six Holocene temperature reconstructions from Finnish Lapland based on various biological proxies. Although the paper focuses on paleoclimate time series, the proposed method can be applied in other contexts where one seeks to infer features that are jointly supported by an ensemble of irregularly sampled noisy time series.


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Panu Erästö. Lasse Holmström. Atte Korhola. Jan Weckström. "Finding a consensus on credible features among several paleoclimate reconstructions." Ann. Appl. Stat. 6 (4) 1377 - 1405, December 2012.


Published: December 2012
First available in Project Euclid: 27 December 2012

zbMATH: 1257.62119
MathSciNet: MR3058668
Digital Object Identifier: 10.1214/12-AOAS540

Keywords: Bayesian analysis , multiple time series , Paleoclimate , scale space analysis , temperature reconstruction

Rights: Copyright © 2012 Institute of Mathematical Statistics

Vol.6 • No. 4 • December 2012
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