Open Access
March 2012 Estimating within-school contact networks to understand influenza transmission
Gail E. Potter, Mark S. Handcock, Ira M. Longini Jr., M. Elizabeth Halloran
Ann. Appl. Stat. 6(1): 1-26 (March 2012). DOI: 10.1214/11-AOAS505


Many epidemic models approximate social contact behavior by assuming random mixing within mixing groups (e.g., homes, schools and workplaces). The effect of more realistic social network structure on estimates of epidemic parameters is an open area of exploration. We develop a detailed statistical model to estimate the social contact network within a high school using friendship network data and a survey of contact behavior. Our contact network model includes classroom structure, longer durations of contacts to friends than nonfriends and more frequent contacts with friends, based on reports in the contact survey. We performed simulation studies to explore which network structures are relevant to influenza transmission. These studies yield two key findings. First, we found that the friendship network structure important to the transmission process can be adequately represented by a dyad-independent exponential random graph model (ERGM). This means that individual-level sampled data is sufficient to characterize the entire friendship network. Second, we found that contact behavior was adequately represented by a static rather than dynamic contact network. We then compare a targeted antiviral prophylaxis intervention strategy and a grade closure intervention strategy under random mixing and network-based mixing. We find that random mixing overestimates the effect of targeted antiviral prophylaxis on the probability of an epidemic when the probability of transmission in 10 minutes of contact is less than 0.004 and underestimates it when this transmission probability is greater than 0.004. We found the same pattern for the final size of an epidemic, with a threshold transmission probability of 0.005. We also find random mixing overestimates the effect of a grade closure intervention on the probability of an epidemic and final size for all transmission probabilities. Our findings have implications for policy recommendations based on models assuming random mixing, and can inform further development of network-based models.


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Gail E. Potter. Mark S. Handcock. Ira M. Longini Jr.. M. Elizabeth Halloran. "Estimating within-school contact networks to understand influenza transmission." Ann. Appl. Stat. 6 (1) 1 - 26, March 2012.


Published: March 2012
First available in Project Euclid: 6 March 2012

zbMATH: 1236.91117
MathSciNet: MR2951527
Digital Object Identifier: 10.1214/11-AOAS505

Keywords: Contact network , Epidemic model , influenza , simulation model , Social network

Rights: Copyright © 2012 Institute of Mathematical Statistics

Vol.6 • No. 1 • March 2012
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