Open Access
September 2016 Assessing the causal effects of financial aids to firms in Tuscany allowing for interference
Bruno Arpino, Alessandra Mattei
Ann. Appl. Stat. 10(3): 1170-1194 (September 2016). DOI: 10.1214/15-AOAS902


We consider policy evaluations when the Stable Unit Treatment Value Assumption (SUTVA) is violated due to the presence of interference among units. We propose to explicitly model interference as a function of units’ characteristics. Our approach is applied to the evaluation of a policy implemented in Tuscany (a region in Italy) on small handicraft firms. Results show that the benefits from the policy are reduced when treated firms are subject to high levels of interference. Moreover, the average causal effect is slightly underestimated when interference is ignored. We stress the importance of considering possible interference among units when evaluating and planning policy interventions.


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Bruno Arpino. Alessandra Mattei. "Assessing the causal effects of financial aids to firms in Tuscany allowing for interference." Ann. Appl. Stat. 10 (3) 1170 - 1194, September 2016.


Received: 1 May 2014; Revised: 1 June 2015; Published: September 2016
First available in Project Euclid: 28 September 2016

zbMATH: 06775263
MathSciNet: MR3553221
Digital Object Identifier: 10.1214/15-AOAS902

Keywords: Causal inference , interference , policy evaluation , potential outcomes , Rubin Causal Model , SUTVA

Rights: Copyright © 2016 Institute of Mathematical Statistics

Vol.10 • No. 3 • September 2016
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