Open Access
November 2012 Short term forecasting of national growth
Antonio Frenda
Afr. Stat. 7(1): 459-473 (November 2012).


The contribution of this paper is to produce national smoothed growth indicators that describe the behaviour of economic activity at a monthly frequency, while utilizing a wide range of economic time series. New Eurocoin indicator, that is published monthly by the Bank of Italy, provides a summary index of the medium to long-run component (MLRG) of the gross domestic product (GDP) growth rate and only for the entire aggregate Euro area, by using the Generalized Dynamic Factor Model. The innovation of this research are some procedures, based on Eurocoin approach, to estimate MLRG in countries belonging to Euro Area.


Download Citation

Antonio Frenda. "Short term forecasting of national growth." Afr. Stat. 7 (1) 459 - 473, November 2012.


Published: November 2012
First available in Project Euclid: 1 February 2013

Primary: 91B62

Keywords: Medium to long run component of the growth (MLRG) , National and European common factors , Real time performance

Rights: Copyright © 2012 The Statistics and Probability African Society

Vol.7 • No. 1 • November 2012
Back to Top