Statistical Science

Reconciling the Subjective and Objective Aspects of Probability

Glenn Shafer

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Since the early nineteenth century, the concept of objective probability has been dynamic. As we recognize this history, we can strengthen Professor Nozer Singpuwalla’s vision of reliability of survival analysis by aligning it with earlier conceptions elaborated by Laplace, Borel, Kolmogorov, Ville and Neyman. By emphasizing testing and recognizing the generality of the vision of Kolmogorov and Neyman, we gain a perspective that does not rely on exchangeability.

Article information

Statist. Sci., Volume 31, Number 4 (2016), 552-554.

First available in Project Euclid: 19 January 2017

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Objective probability subjective probability game-theoretic probability martingale testing defensive forecasting


Shafer, Glenn. Reconciling the Subjective and Objective Aspects of Probability. Statist. Sci. 31 (2016), no. 4, 552--554. doi:10.1214/16-STS575.

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See also

  • Main article: Filtering and Tracking Survival Propensity (Reconsidering the Foundations of Reliability).