Statistical Science

Probabilistic Expert Systems in Medicine: Practical Issues in Handling Uncertainty

David J. Spiegelhalter

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Abstract

The development of expert systems in medicine has generally been accompanied by a rejection of formal probabilistic methods for handling uncertainty. We argue that a coherent probabilistic approach can, if carefully applied, meet many of the practical demands being made, and briefly illustrate our claim with three current projects.

Article information

Source
Statist. Sci., Volume 2, Number 1 (1987), 25-30.

Dates
First available in Project Euclid: 19 April 2007

Permanent link to this document
https://projecteuclid.org/euclid.ss/1177013428

Digital Object Identifier
doi:10.1214/ss/1177013428

JSTOR
links.jstor.org

Keywords
Evidence propagation knowledge representation graphical models imprecise probabilities

Citation

Spiegelhalter, David J. Probabilistic Expert Systems in Medicine: Practical Issues in Handling Uncertainty. Statist. Sci. 2 (1987), no. 1, 25--30. doi:10.1214/ss/1177013428. https://projecteuclid.org/euclid.ss/1177013428


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See also

  • See Comment: Stephen R. Watson. [Probabilistic Expert Systems in Medicine: Practical Issues in Handling Uncertainty]: Comment. Statist. Sci., Volume 2, Number 1 (1987), 30--32.
  • See Comment: A. P. Dempster, Augustine Kong. [Probabilistic Expert Systems in Medicine: Practical Issues in Handling Uncertainty]: Comment. Statist. Sci., Volume 2, Number 1 (1987), 32--36.
  • See Comment: Glenn Shafer. [Probabilistic Expert Systems in Medicine: Practical Issues in Handling Uncertainty]: Comment. Statist. Sci., Volume 2, Number 1 (1987), 37--38.
  • See Comment: Dennis V. Lindley. [Probabilistic Expert Systems in Medicine: Practical Issues in Handling Uncertainty]: Comment: A Tale of Two Wells. Statist. Sci., Volume 2, Number 1 (1987), 38--40.
  • See Comment: David J. Spiegelhalter. [Probabilistic Expert Systems in Medicine: Practical Issues in Handling Uncertainty]: Comment. Statist. Sci., Volume 2, Number 1 (1987), 40--41.
  • See Comment: Glenn Shafer. [Probabilistic Expert Systems in Medicine: Practical Issues in Handling Uncertainty]: Rejoinder. Statist. Sci., Volume 2, Number 1 (1987), 41--42.
  • See Comment: Dennis V. Lindley. [Probabilistic Expert Systems in Medicine: Practical Issues in Handling Uncertainty]: Rejoinder. Statist. Sci., Volume 2, Number 1 (1987), 42--43.
  • See Comment: David J. Spiegelhalter. [Probabilistic Expert Systems in Medicine: Practical Issues in Handling Uncertainty]: Rejoinder. Statist. Sci., Volume 2, Number 1 (1987), 43--44.