A printing malfunction caused all minus signs and some left parentheses to be omitted from the paper “Bayesian Model Averaging:A Tutorial ” by Jennifer A. Hoeting, David Madigan, Adrian E. Raftery and Chris T. Volinsky in the November 1999 issue of Statistical Science (volume 14, pages 382–417).These errors occurred after the proof stage and were not the fault of the au- thors. Corrections to the paper are listed below. A corrected version of the paper is also available at http://www.stat.washington.edu/www/research/online/hoeting1999.pdf.Please cite this article as follows: Hoeting, J. A., Madigan, D., Raftery, A. E. and Volinsky, C. T. (1999) “Bayesian Model Averaging: A Tutorial (with discussion)” Statistical Science 14:4, 382–417. Corrected version available at http://www.stat.washington.edu/www/research/online/hoeting1999.pdf.

We propose general procedures for posterior sampling from additive and generalized additive models. The procedure is a stochastic generalization of the well-known backfitting algorithm for fitting additive models. One chooses a linear operator (“smoother”) for each predictor, and the algorithm requires only the application of the operator and its square root. The procedure is general and modular, and we describe its application to nonparametric, semiparametric and mixed models.

The concept of the spectral envelope was recently introduced as a statistical basis for the frequency domain analysis and scaling of qualitative-valued time series. In the process of developing the spectral envelope methodology, many other interesting extensions became evident. In this article we explain the basic concept and give numerous examples of the usefulness of the technology. These examples include analyses of DNA sequences, finding optimal transformations for the analysis of real-valued time series, residual analysis, detecting common signals in many time series,and the analysis of textures.

What is “statistical method”? Is it the same as “scientific method”? This paper answers the first question by specifying the elements and procedures common to all statistical investigations and organizing these into a single structure. This structure is illustrated by careful examination of the first scientific study on the speed of light carried out by A. A. Michelson in 1879. Our answer to the second question is negative. To understand this a history on the speed of light up to the time of Michelson’s study is presented. The larger history and the details of a single study allow us to place the method of statistics within the larger context of science.

It is shown how saddlepoint methods may be used to approximate reliabilities and failure rates of finite stochastic systems with feedback loops. Some countably in .nite state systems including birth-death processes are also considered. The use of saddlepoint methods requires as input the moment generating functions (MGFs) for the system failure time distributions. Some new explicit formulas for these MGFs are given that are amenable to symbolic computation and which also make the numerical computation of saddlepoint approximations quite simple and convenient.

Joseph Waksberg was born September 20, 1915, in Kielce, Poland; his family emigrated to the United States in 1921. Soon after graduating from the City University of New York CUNY in 1936, he moved to the Washington, D.C. area. He joined the Census Bureau in 1940, and stayed there for 33 years, retiring in 1973 as the Associate Director for Statistical Methods, Research, and Standards. Joe then joined Westat, a statistical research firm in suburban Maryland. He has continued to work at Westat for the last 26 years, serving as Chairman of the Board of Westat since 1990. From 1967 to 1997, he also served as a consultant to CBS and other TV networks for election night predic-tions. He has served the profession of statistics in many roles and received numerous awards, including the Department of Commerce Gold Medal and the Roger Herriot Memorial Award from the American Statistical Association. He has been active in the American Statistical Association serving on the Board of Directors as chairs of both the Survey Research Methods Section and the Social Statistics Section and on a number of committees. He has been president of the Washington Statistical Society and is currently an Associate Editor of Survey Methodology.