Waiting for $m$ mutations

Abstract

We consider a model of a population of fixed size $N$ in which each individual gets replaced at rate one and each individual experiences a mutation at rate $\mu$. We calculate the asymptotic distribution of the time that it takes before there is an individual in the population with $m$ mutations. Several different behaviors are possible, depending on how $\mu$ changes with $N$. These results have applications to the problem of determining the waiting time for regulatory sequences to appear and to models of cancer development.