## Brazilian Journal of Probability and Statistics

- Braz. J. Probab. Stat.
- Volume 28, Number 2 (2014), 275-287.

### Prediction of failure probability of oil wells

João B. Carvalho, Dione M. Valença, and Julio M. Singer

#### Abstract

We consider parametric accelerated failure time models with random effects to predict the probability of possibly correlated failures occurring in oil wells. In this context, we first consider empirical Bayes predictors (EBP) based on a Weibull distribution for the failure times and on a Gaussian distribution for the random effects. We also obtain empirical best linear unbiased predictors (EBLUP) using a linear mixed model for which the form of the distribution of the random effects is not specified. We compare both approaches using data obtained from an oil-drilling company and suggest how the results may be employed in designing a preventive maintenance program.

#### Article information

**Source**

Braz. J. Probab. Stat., Volume 28, Number 2 (2014), 275-287.

**Dates**

First available in Project Euclid: 4 April 2014

**Permanent link to this document**

https://projecteuclid.org/euclid.bjps/1396615441

**Digital Object Identifier**

doi:10.1214/12-BJPS206

**Mathematical Reviews number (MathSciNet)**

MR3189498

**Zentralblatt MATH identifier**

1319.62228

**Keywords**

Accelerated failure time models correlated data empirical Bayes predictors empirical best linear unbiased predictors random effects models

#### Citation

Carvalho, João B.; Valença, Dione M.; Singer, Julio M. Prediction of failure probability of oil wells. Braz. J. Probab. Stat. 28 (2014), no. 2, 275--287. doi:10.1214/12-BJPS206. https://projecteuclid.org/euclid.bjps/1396615441