Adaptive estimation of the copula correlation matrix for semiparametric elliptical copulas

Abstract

We study the adaptive estimation of copula correlation matrix $\Sigma$ for the semi-parametric elliptical copula model. In this context, the correlations are connected to Kendall’s tau through a sine function transformation. Hence, a natural estimate for $\Sigma$ is the plug-in estimator $\widehat{\Sigma}$ with Kendall’s tau statistic. We first obtain a sharp bound on the operator norm of $\widehat{\Sigma}-\Sigma$. Then we study a factor model of $\Sigma$, for which we propose a refined estimator $\widetilde{\Sigma}$ by fitting a low-rank matrix plus a diagonal matrix to $\widehat{\Sigma}$ using least squares with a nuclear norm penalty on the low-rank matrix. The bound on the operator norm of $\widehat{\Sigma}-\Sigma$ serves to scale the penalty term, and we obtain finite sample oracle inequalities for $\widetilde{\Sigma}$. We also consider an elementary factor copula model of $\Sigma$, for which we propose closed-form estimators. All of our estimation procedures are entirely data-driven.