Bayesian Analysis

Estimating the Use of Public Lands: Integrated Modeling of Open Populations with Convolution Likelihood Ecological Abundance Regression

Lutz F. Gruber, Erica F. Stuber, Lyndsie S. Wszola, and Joseph J. Fontaine

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We present an integrated open population model where the population dynamics are defined by a differential equation, and the related statistical model utilizes a Poisson binomial convolution likelihood. Key advantages of the proposed approach over existing open population models include the flexibility to predict related, but unobserved quantities such as total immigration or emigration over a specified time period, and more computationally efficient posterior simulation by elimination of the need to explicitly simulate latent immigration and emigration. The viability of the proposed method is shown in an in-depth analysis of outdoor recreation participation on public lands, where the surveyed populations changed rapidly and demographic population closure cannot be assumed even within a single day.

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Bayesian Anal., Volume 14, Number 4 (2019), 1173-1199.

First available in Project Euclid: 7 March 2019

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integrated population model panel data methods discrete valued distributions unevenly spaced time series

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Gruber, Lutz F.; Stuber, Erica F.; Wszola, Lyndsie S.; Fontaine, Joseph J. Estimating the Use of Public Lands: Integrated Modeling of Open Populations with Convolution Likelihood Ecological Abundance Regression. Bayesian Anal. 14 (2019), no. 4, 1173--1199. doi:10.1214/19-BA1152.

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