## The Annals of Statistics

- Ann. Statist.
- Volume 10, Number 4 (1982), 1075-1089.

### Bayes's Two Arguments for The Rule of Conditioning

#### Abstract

The introductory section of Thomas Bayes's famous essay on probability contains two arguments for what we now call the rule of conditioning. The first argument, which leads to Bayes's third proposition, can be made rigorous if we use rooted trees to represent the step-by-step determination of events. The second argument, which leads to Bayes's fifth proposition, does not stand up to scrutiny.

#### Article information

**Source**

Ann. Statist., Volume 10, Number 4 (1982), 1075-1089.

**Dates**

First available in Project Euclid: 12 April 2007

**Permanent link to this document**

https://projecteuclid.org/euclid.aos/1176345974

**Digital Object Identifier**

doi:10.1214/aos/1176345974

**Mathematical Reviews number (MathSciNet)**

MR673644

**Zentralblatt MATH identifier**

0502.62002

**JSTOR**

links.jstor.org

**Subjects**

Primary: 60A05: Axioms; other general questions

Secondary: 62A15

**Keywords**

Bayes conditional probability exact events rooted trees

#### Citation

Shafer, Glenn. Bayes's Two Arguments for The Rule of Conditioning. Ann. Statist. 10 (1982), no. 4, 1075--1089. doi:10.1214/aos/1176345974. https://projecteuclid.org/euclid.aos/1176345974