The Annals of Applied Statistics

Latent demographic profile estimation in hard-to-reach groups

Tyler H. McCormick and Tian Zheng

Full-text: Open access

Abstract

The sampling frame in most social science surveys excludes members of certain groups, known as hard-to-reach groups. These groups, or subpopulations, may be difficult to access (the homeless, e.g.), camouflaged by stigma (individuals with HIV/AIDS), or both (commercial sex workers). Even basic demographic information about these groups is typically unknown, especially in many developing nations. We present statistical models which leverage social network structure to estimate demographic characteristics of these subpopulations using Aggregated relational data (ARD), or questions of the form “How many X’s do you know?” Unlike other network-based techniques for reaching these groups, ARD require no special sampling strategy and are easily incorporated into standard surveys. ARD also do not require respondents to reveal their own group membership. We propose a Bayesian hierarchical model for estimating the demographic characteristics of hard-to-reach groups, or latent demographic profiles, using ARD. We propose two estimation techniques. First, we propose a Markov-chain Monte Carlo algorithm for existing data or cases where the full posterior distribution is of interest. For cases when new data can be collected, we propose guidelines and, based on these guidelines, propose a simple estimate motivated by a missing data approach. Using data from McCarty et al. [Human Organization 60 (2001) 28–39], we estimate the age and gender profiles of six hard-to-reach groups, such as individuals who have HIV, women who were raped, and homeless persons. We also evaluate our simple estimates using simulation studies.

Article information

Source
Ann. Appl. Stat., Volume 6, Number 4 (2012), 1795-1813.

Dates
First available in Project Euclid: 27 December 2012

Permanent link to this document
https://projecteuclid.org/euclid.aoas/1356629060

Digital Object Identifier
doi:10.1214/12-AOAS569

Mathematical Reviews number (MathSciNet)
MR3058684

Zentralblatt MATH identifier
1257.62122

Keywords
Aggregated relational data hard-to-reach populations hierarchical model social network survey design

Citation

McCormick, Tyler H.; Zheng, Tian. Latent demographic profile estimation in hard-to-reach groups. Ann. Appl. Stat. 6 (2012), no. 4, 1795--1813. doi:10.1214/12-AOAS569. https://projecteuclid.org/euclid.aoas/1356629060


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