Forgetting of the initial distribution for nonergodic Hidden Markov Chains

Abstract

In this paper, the forgetting of the initial distribution for a nonergodic Hidden Markov Models (HMM) is studied. A new set of conditions is proposed to establish the forgetting property of the filter. Both a pathwise and mean convergence of the total variation distance of the filter started from two different initial distributions are obtained. The results are illustrated using a generic nonergodic state-space model for which both pathwise and mean exponential stability is established.