The Annals of Applied Probability

Strong approximations for mobile population epidemic models

Damian Clancy

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We consider a stochastic model for the spread of an epidemic in a population split into m groups in which both infective and susceptible individuals are able to move between groups. Using a coupling argument similar to those applied to various other epidemic models by previous authors, we show that as the initial susceptible population becomes large, the process of infectives in this epidemic model converges to a multitype birth-and-death process with time-dependent birth rates. The behavior of this limiting process is then considered, in particular, the conditions under which extinction is almost certain.

Article information

Ann. Appl. Probab., Volume 6, Number 3 (1996), 883-895.

First available in Project Euclid: 18 October 2002

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Zentralblatt MATH identifier

Primary: 92D30: Epidemiology
Secondary: 60F15: Strong theorems 60J80: Branching processes (Galton-Watson, birth-and-death, etc.)

Multigroup epidemics coupling threshold theorems migration processes birth-and-death processes


Clancy, Damian. Strong approximations for mobile population epidemic models. Ann. Appl. Probab. 6 (1996), no. 3, 883--895. doi:10.1214/aoap/1034968231.

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