The Annals of Applied Probability

An epidemic model with removal-dependent infection rate

Philip O'Neill

Full-text: Open access

Abstract

This paper is concerned with a model for the spread of an epidemic in a closed, homogeneously mixed population in which new infections occur at rate $\beta(z)xy/(x + y)$, where x, y and z denote, respectively, the numbers of susceptible, infective and removed individuals. Thus the infection mechanism depends upon the number of removals to date, reflecting behavior change in response to the progress of the epidemic. For a deterministic version of the model, a recurrent solution is obtained when $\beta(z)$ is piecewise constant. Equations for the total size distribution of the stochastic model are derived. Stochastic comparison results are obtained using a coupling method. Strong convergence of a sequence of epidemics to an unusual birth-and-death process is exhibited, and the behavior of the limiting birth-and-death process is considered. An epidemic model featuring sudden behavior change is studied as an example, and a stochastic threshold result analagous to that of Whittle is derived.

Article information

Source
Ann. Appl. Probab., Volume 7, Number 1 (1997), 90-109.

Dates
First available in Project Euclid: 14 October 2002

Permanent link to this document
https://projecteuclid.org/euclid.aoap/1034625253

Digital Object Identifier
doi:10.1214/aoap/1034625253

Mathematical Reviews number (MathSciNet)
MR1428750

Zentralblatt MATH identifier
0871.92027

Subjects
Primary: 92D30: Epidemiology 60J27: Continuous-time Markov processes on discrete state spaces

Keywords
Epidemics size of epidemic deterministic and stochastic models threshold theorems coupling strong convergence birth-and-death process

Citation

O'Neill, Philip. An epidemic model with removal-dependent infection rate. Ann. Appl. Probab. 7 (1997), no. 1, 90--109. doi:10.1214/aoap/1034625253. https://projecteuclid.org/euclid.aoap/1034625253


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