Forecasting SO 2 Pollution Incidents by means of Elman Artificial Neural Networks and ARIMA Models

Abstract

An SO₂ emission episode at coal-fired power station occurs when the series of bihourly average of SO₂ concentration, taken at 5-minute intervals, is greater than a specific value. Advance prediction of these episodes of pollution is very important for companies generating electricity by burning coal since it allows them to take appropriate preventive measures. In order to forecast SO₂ pollution episodes, three different methods were tested: Elman neural networks, autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA) models, and a hybrid method combining both. The three methods were applied to a time series of SO₂ concentrations registered in a control station in the vicinity of a coal-fired power station. The results obtained showed a better performance of the hybrid method over the Elman networks and the ARIMA models. The best prediction was obtained 115 minutes in advance by the hybrid model.